A new Datafolha poll shows President Lula (PT) with 38% of voting intentions in the first round, compared with 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The survey confirms the rise of Augusto Cury (Avante), who gained six points and reached 8%. The gap between Lula and Flávio fell to five points, half the difference recorded in May.
They are followed by Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 4%; Renan Santos (Missão), with 3%; and Romeu Zema (Novo), with 2%. Samara (UP), Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) have 1% each. The others received no votes. Blank and invalid votes total 6%, while 3% are undecided.
In the runoff, Lula leads Flávio 46% to 44%, a technical tie within the two-point margin of error. The president also beats Caiado 46% to 41%, Zema 48% to 39%, and Renan 47% to 38%. In all scenarios, the advantage narrowed within the margin of error compared with the previous poll. Rejection of both leading candidates remains high: 47% say they would not vote for Flávio, while 45% would not vote for Lula.
The institute interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on September 1 and 2, in a poll registered with the TSE.
The survey was conducted amid the start of televised campaign advertising, the debate on TV Band, interviews on Globo and the Supreme Court crisis involving messages exchanged between former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro and Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
