Solar is now bigger than coal in China — and yet still way behind

Solar is beating coal in China. Sorta. But also not at all.

Let me explain.

An eye-popping new chart made the rounds this week. It shows a line representing solar energy in China rising improbably over the last decade, until at last it overtakes another line that represents the nation’s vast coal fleet. One article featuring this chart came with the following headline: ​“Solar surpasses coal in China, becomes top power source.”

This is exactly the type of chart a person concerned about climate change could hope to see — one that would have defied the imagination of analysts and onlookers even a few years ago. It proves that the nation has been taking serious steps to clean up its coal-heavy grid, contra those who use China’s enormous emissions to justify climate complacency elsewhere.

But it’s also a bit misleading. While there’s nothing wrong with the data — solar really has overtaken coal in terms of capacity — the story is more complicated than a tidy chart can express.