A renewed surge in oil prices could put further pressure on inflation and increase the chances of another interest rate hike by the SARB.
This week, Brent crude oil prices hit their highest levels at around $97 per barrel as flare-ups in the Middle East war sparked increasing fears about global supply.
As South Africans faced significant fuel price hikes of R1.34 for petrol and up to R3.15 for diesel, analysts fear that international oil prices will break above $100 again.
With the current fuel prices calculated on oil prices in the region of $90, the risk is tilted towards more significant fuel price hikes in October, with early data pointing to potential increases of over R1.50 per litre for both fuel types.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil supply estimates for the rest of 2026 because an agreement enabling the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains elusive. Global oil supply is now forecast to fall by a further 4% in 2026.
