President Donald Trump is reportedly in private discussions with senior aides regarding the possibility of declaring the ongoing conflict with Iran as “over.” This development comes amid an active conflict that has seen U.S. forces conduct airstrikes on Iranian military targets, with Iran retaliating against U.S. assets in the region. The discussions suggest a potential shift in U.S. strategy that could impact ongoing negotiations related to a potential U.S.-Iran deal in 2026.
The news, originating from a social media report by @Kalshi, indicates a possible de-escalation in the conflict, which has involved regional players such as Israel. Currently, there are no official statements from the White House or the Iranian government confirming these discussions. However, the possibility of declaring the war over could influence the dynamics of diplomatic negotiations, potentially affecting markets that reflect the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being reached this year.
Market participants appear to be considering the implications of these discussions on the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal, especially with regard to the inclusion of terms like Iran Reconstruction Funding. Current market pricing suggests a slight increase in the probability of such a deal, with odds reflecting cautious optimism despite the ongoing hostilities.
