After ranking NFC teams 1-16 on Wednesday, six NFL team executives are back to stack the AFC as the 2026 regular season approaches.Is this finally the Buffalo Bills’ year? Four of the six execs have Buffalo at the top. In a change, the Chiefs failed to crack the top five. Are they too low?We answer those questions and more in a run-through of all 16 teams, from Buffalo to Miami, ranked below in median order, with average as a tiebreaker.1. Buffalo BillsVotes: 2-1-1-1-2-1 | Avg: 1.3 | Median: 1 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 6The Bills top the AFC this year almost by default amid perceptions that Kansas City and Baltimore have regressed, while Denver and New England remain a tick behind."Josh Allen is the best player in the league," one exec said.While some criticized the price Buffalo paid in the offseason when acquiring DJ Moore from Chicago, one of the execs in this survey said he expected big things from the receiver in Buffalo."My hardest choice was Houston-Buffalo (for the top spot)," another exec said. "The defensive change (under new coordinator Jim Leonhard) helps, they're a little more violent defensively, a little more athletic defensively. And then it's a top-flight offensive line, and then DJ Moore is going to make an impact."What makes this exec think Buffalo, with Joe Brady replacing Sean McDermott as coach, can finally reach a Super Bowl with Josh Allen?"Everybody is knocking him — 'He hasn't done it, hasn't done it,'" this exec said. "He did it in Kansas City in (the divisional playoffs in January 2022). It didn't end up the right way for him, but he did it."Josh Allen has been 'force of nature ' for Buffalo BillsRobert Mays2. Denver BroncosVotes: 1-2-4-2-4-5 | Avg: 3.0 | Median: 3 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 5 | Division contender: 1The top two teams in this AFC ranking appear strong on their offensive lines. That could help explain how Denver edged Houston for the second spot. Both are strong on defense."Sean Payton does a masterful job of making his teams feel they are better than where they are, and that exudes through their play," one exec said.Support for Denver was not as strong as the Broncos' No. 2 ranking."As much as I don't buy Denver," one exec said, "they have the defense, they have the head coach, they have the quarterback (Bo Nix) healthy, they added Jaylen Waddle. I don't know about their run game or Houston's run game, but I trust the continuity of those defenses."The one exec ranking Denver first in the AFC now thought that would likely change over the course of the season, but he wasn't willing to elevate teams with bigger question marks (Patrick Mahomes' health, for one, and the Bills' unproven head coach)."I think when it's all said and done, Denver could be the third team in the AFC West," this exec said, "but going into the season, I give teams respect for what they have established."3. Houston TexansVotes: 3-7-6-3-1-3 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 3 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 4 | Division contender: 2The Texans' roster is loved. Their quarterback is a question mark."I actually think the Texans might have the best roster (in the AFC)," one exec said. "I'd be tempted to put Houston above Buffalo because of that, but there is such a big difference in the quarterbacks."The Texans have won a playoff game in each of the past three seasons, mostly on the strength of their defense. Their postseason defeats have shaken confidence around the league in C.J. Stroud."The last exposure to Houston was how badly they looked on offense," the exec slotting Houston sixth said. "I get it, Stroud is in Year 2 with the same coordinator (Nick Caley). But if he continues to look like he looked last year, they are going to have to win on defense, and I don't know how that is going to work. That is why I'm lower on them — nothing more, nothing less."Stroud tossed four interceptions and took three sacks in Houston's 28-16 divisional playoff defeat to New England last season."I'm betting on the defense and just the maturation of where the team is at," the exec ranking Houston first in the conference said. "I think they are in that sweet spot where they take a step up. If you asked me to pick the AFC Championship Game, I would say Houston-Buffalo right now."4. New England PatriotsVotes: 4-3-9-4-3-6 | Avg: 4.8 | Median: 4 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 4 | Division contender: 2The Patriots reached the Super Bowl last season, but none of the execs has them among the top two in the conference now. None had New England in the top two last season."They faced a few quarterbacks last year that I did not even know who they were, and I work in the National Football League," one exec said.Brady Cook, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers and Jarrett Stidham averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt in four starts against New England last season (including playoffs). The Patriots also faced Justin Fields and Spencer Rattler, plus Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward and Joe Flacco."Cook? Who was that?" the exec added. "They play a tougher schedule this year, and frankly, their team is thin. The head coach said so himself."Indeed, Mike Vrabel recently said he did not think New England had a very deep team.Do the New England Patriots have a fragile foundation?Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen"New England can take a drop because of the schedule, but they still have the Jets twice and Miami twice, and I like their coaching, so that's why I left them up there a little bit," one of the execs ranking New England third said.The Patriots face the NFC North in the scheduling rotation this season."At some point, they are going to have to buck up and beat some good teams," another exec said. "I think they are the No. 1 regression team. Lastly, they haven't re-signed (Christian) Gonzalez yet. If that drags on into the season, it won't be good in the locker room."5. Baltimore RavensVotes: 8-4-2-5-7-4 | Avg: 5.0 | Median: 4.5 | Vegas wins: 11.5 (1st-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 4 | Division contender: 2The Ravens were No. 1 in the AFC survey at this time last year. They finished ninth in the conference after quarterback Lamar Jackson and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike suffered injuries early in the season. Jackson returned but wasn't a dynamic runner. Madubuike returned in time for training camp after rehabbing from what was initially considered a career-threatening neck injury, but it's not clear whether he will be ready to play in Week 1."I like that they are going to have a motivated Lamar Jackson," the exec slotting Baltimore second in the AFC said. "The offense and the offensive coordinator (Declan Doyle) will challenge him in a way he hasn't been challenged in quite some time."The voter slotting Baltimore eighth did so because he has questions about Jackson after a disappointing 2025 season."So much depends on Lamar's health and explosion, which is such a question mark," the voter ranking Baltimore fifth said. "He did not play in preseason. It is all really projection. But how many two-time MVPs are out there? How do you not have them as a Super Bowl contender with him and Zay Flowers and Kyle Hamilton and Derrick Henry and Madubuike back?"What about Doyle, the unproven offensive coordinator?"You have to give Declan Doyle the benefit of the doubt with the Ben Johnson scheme, and Jesse Minter is obviously a really smart defensive coach," this exec added. "They are definitely in the mix, and they were a missed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, with everything that went wrong."6. Kansas City ChiefsVotes: 5-5-3-9-5-7 | Avg: 5.7 | Median: 5 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 1 | Division contender: 5It's strange seeing the Chiefs all the way down here."Yeah, Andy Reid and a healthy Patrick Mahomes?" the exec slotting Kansas City third said. "I'll take my chances with them coming away with 11 wins."That's barely higher than the Chiefs' Vegas win total, which ranks tied for second in the AFC."Mahomes coming off the knee, they lose the corners in (the offseason) — those are all good players, right?" an exec ranking the Chiefs fifth said. "I'm a little skeptical how they are going to replace those corners. We know Mahomes is good, but I don't know how healthy he is."Kansas City is banking on first-round corner Mansoor Delane, first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and free-agent nose tackle Khyiris Tonga to steady the defense."They need tackles, and we don't know if Mahomes can move," another exec said. "That's one team that could really go either way."7. Cincinnati BengalsVotes: 6-6-5-8-10-2 | Avg: 6.2 | Median: 6 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 2 | Division contender: 4The exec slotting the Bengals second said he sensed "good vibes" coming from Cincinnati, a change from the last couple seasons, when the offensive line and overall defense struggled.Can vibes block T.J. Watt?"For me, it was the O-line that held me back," the exec ranking the Bengals eighth in the AFC said. "You love the skill-position talent, and the defense should take a leap, but I'm not sure they have the scheme to be elite defensively. Offensively, can they run it with Chase Brown? Do they even want to run it? Can they protect? This ain't fantasy football."Trading the 10th pick in the 2026 draft to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence showed the urgency in Cincinnati to fix the defense, which could in turn take pressure off quarterback Joe Burrow to win shootouts each week. Burrow played a career-low eight games last season after suffering a turf-toe injury in Week 2. The Bengals went 5-3 in his starts, partly because Cincy faced inept offenses along the way (Cleveland twice, Arizona and Miami once apiece).The exec ranking the Bengals 10th had Pittsburgh eighth, Jacksonville ninth and the Colts 11th."Even with Burrow back, they have to make a huge jump defensively," this exec said. "You could argue for flipping Cincy and Pittsburgh. But I think Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Indy, I think I have that clump right."8. Los Angeles ChargersVotes: 7-9-7-7-6-8 | Avg: 7.3 | Median: 7 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th-AFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 5 | Sub-.500: 1No one stepped onto a limb by pushing the Chargers into the top five."I think the Chargers will be better," one exec said. "They still have some deficiencies on defense, specifically on the back end. I would think they can't have multiple years of your offensive line being decimated. The quarterback (Justin Herbert) is really good, super talented."Losing new center Tyler Biadasz to a season-ending knee injury in camp felt ominous at the time."Khalil Mack is older, and at what point does Derwin James hit the wall?" another exec said. "There is a lot to like with Herbert and the passing game. The O-line health will help, and the run game looks good on paper with a first-round back (Omarion Hampton) and (new offensive coordinator) Mike McDaniel's scheme. I want to see it first, and I do expect some regression on defense with Jesse Minter gone."Another exec said he thought Minter's replacement as defensive coordinator, Chris O'Leary, might not carry a dropoff at all, suggesting O'Leary had significant upward potential.But with this team, given its history, seeing will be believing.9. Jacksonville JaguarsVotes: 9-8-8-6-9-9 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 8.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-AFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 1 | Division contender: 5The Jaguars finished third in the AFC last season. They are only ninth here, but with considerable upward mobility."There is a clear line of demarcation in the NFC," one exec said, "whereas in the AFC, yeah, I can make a case for Jacksonville. I can make a case for Indy."What is the case for the Jaguars?"How good the coaching is on both sides of the ball," this exec said. "(Anthony) Campanile, (Grant) Udinski and Liam Coen give them a really good top three from a young bright mind perspective. They are good up front defensively, and once they added (Jakobi Meyers), that offense took off. (Bhayshul) Tuten has the potential to be an explosive back. I don't see a lot of regression."The glass-half-empty view suggests the Jaguars will miss Travis Etienne and linebacker Devin Lloyd, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never shown consistency.10. Pittsburgh SteelersVotes: 10-10-10-11-8-11 | Avg: 10.0 | Median: 10 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-AFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 1 | Sub-.500: 5Five of the six execs had the Steelers 10th or 11th, lower than any execs had them in this exercise one year ago. Has Tomlin fatigue turned into Aaron Rodgers fatigue?"Pittsburgh has been sick of Tomlin, hating the one-and-dones, but be careful what you wish for, because on paper, they have sub-.500 written all over them," one exec said. "A shaky O-line with an aging quarterback is not a good combo."Rodgers' inability to move showed up disastrously against Houston's swarming defense in the playoffs."The quarterback is the quarterback, and he's polarizing," another exec said. "He ain't getting younger, and you question what exactly their offense is going to look like. They are old on defense. It can go quick there."How polarizing is Rodgers?"Pittsburgh with Rodgers is gonna be capable of beating anybody in any week," another exec said.Most execs viewed this section of the rankings as one where a team or two might make a push, but only so far."(Mike) McCarthy obviously knows Aaron, and his offenses were good in Dallas," another exec said. "Adding (Michael) Pittman helps. But I don't see them having a great run game, so you are putting a lot of pressure on Rodgers."This exec liked the addition of Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator and also thought McCarthy would be more aggressive in game management."Overall, though, this feels like an older team that is stuck," he said. "I don't see how they get better a year older and lacking continuity."11. Indianapolis ColtsVotes: 11-11-13-10-11-10 | Avg: 11.0 | Median: 11 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (11th-AFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 2 | Sub-.500: 4The Colts' season could hinge on the strength of Daniel Jones' surgically repaired Achilles tendon."All indications are it was as simple of an Achilles repair as it could be," one of the execs ranking Indy 10th said. "Between him, Jonathan Taylor, a good offensive line, Ty Warren continuing to ascend and (Shane) Steichen as a play caller, my only concern is at wide receiver. They were desperate enough to add Keenan Allen."The pass rush could be the key variable on defense. But so much hinges on Jones staying healthy."If the (Anthony) Richardson kid has to play, they are f---ed," the executive ranking the Colts lowest said. "Daniel Jones coming off the injury, who knows? They are relying on Keenan Allen, and you just don't know. I don't think their defense is all that better."Another exec saw the Colts as a middling team that could make a move."The Chargers could make a push, the Steelers could make a push, the Colts could make a push," he said."I see them middle of the pack in a division with two good teams in Houston and Jacksonville, who I do not think are going anywhere," another exec said.12. Las Vegas RaidersVotes: 13-12-12-14-12-12 | Avg: 12.5 | Median: 12 | Vegas wins: 5.5 (T-14th-AFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6The Raiders will have a much clearer identity this season after patching together their 2025 staff with a combination of holdovers and high-profile additions who didn't meld coherently."The Raiders are definitely better," one exec said. "I know one thing: They will run the ball. They will have an identity."Raiders announce Kirk Cousins will start over Fernando MendozaSam WarrenKirk Cousins' lack of mobility and the Raiders' weak group of wide receivers will not help."(Klint) Kubiak maximized Sam Darnold and found a way to feed JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in Seattle, and his offense started out hot in Derek Carr's final year with New Orleans," another exec said. "But Kirk is immobile, (Ashton) Jeanty is starting off injured and it's such a top-heavy offensive roster. It is Jeanty, (Brock) Bowers and then probably the worst receiver room in the league along with Miami."How bad is that receiver room?"If you are scheming up stuff for Tre Tucker as your 1, yikes," this exec said. "I like Jalen Nailor as an add, but what was he, a third at best in Minnesota? Kubiak is definitely going to have his offensive guru-ness tested."13. Tennessee TitansVotes: 12-15-11-13-14-13 | Avg: 13.0 | Median: 13 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (T-12th-AFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6The exec who has the Titans highest (11th) said his rankings simply worked out that way. He wasn't consciously elevating Tennessee."They play Indianapolis, Houston and Jacksonville, which is not exactly murderer's row," this exec said. "They could win a couple games in the division. I don't think they are good. I just know the schedule plays in their favor."The exec ranking Tennessee 12th did still expect significant improvement."They will win some games," he said. "The defense will be considerably better. The quarterback will show some explosiveness with what is around him, but I do not trust the quarterback (Cam Ward) or the run game overall. There is a limit on what they will be able to do offensively. I do think free agency and the coaching will help them win some more games."14. New York JetsVotes: 15-13-14-12-15-14 | Avg: 13.8 | Median: 14 | Vegas wins: 5.5 (T-14th-AFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6There is talent on the Jets' roster."I'm very intrigued by the Jets," the exec highest on the team said. "I could see a world where, especially on offense, Geno Smith has an NFL arm with NFL accuracy, with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall as bona fide No. 1s at their positions. They invested all that draft capital in the O-line, and have a couple young tight ends. Now it's about seeing what they can get out of Aaron Glenn now that he is devoting more of his time to defense."Another exec agreed that the Jets' roster is not bad, and Smith could provide needed stability at quarterback. But he didn't trust the organization."Their pathway to relevance is not firing their coach (Glenn) early in the season and trying to tank," this exec said. "If they don't beat the Titans (in Week 1), there is a possibility they are 0-3 heading to Chicago and that is a coach-get-fired game."That would indeed be quite Jets-like."I can see a path where the word starts going around that they are going to get (Mike) Tomlin or (Sean) McDermott," this exec added.Under that scenario, the Bears' ability to turn around their franchise instantly by hiring Ben Johnson could percolate in the mind of Jets ownership if the team loses to the Titans, Packers and Lions before heading to Chicago.It's never too early to consider such things with the Jets.15. Cleveland BrownsVotes: 14-14-15-16-13-16 | Avg: 14.7 | Median: 14.5 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (T-12th-AFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6The Browns remain, at least for now, defined by their quarterback situation, which led them to start Deshaun Watson over Shedeur Sanders entering Week 1."They doubled down on toxic," one exec said. "I don't know how anybody can think they are headed in the right direction."What to expect from Deshaun Watson as the Browns' starting QBZac JacksonDefensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and edge rusher Myles Garrett were two strengths the Browns could count on last season. Both are gone."I think their defense is not going to be good, and that quarterback situation is going to be a problem," another exec said.How long before Cleveland benches Watson for Sanders?"You didn't think the situation could get worse than Deshaun," another exec said. "It got worse. Sanders is not good, and the circus he brings is almost Tim Tebow-ish in a different fashion."16. Miami DolphinsVotes: 16-16-16-15-16-15 | Avg: 15.7 | Median: 16 | Vegas wins: 4.5 (16th-AFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6New coach Jeff Hafley said the Dolphins will not be judged by wins and losses this season.Execs thought that equated to waving a white flag before the battle."Then what are you measured by?" one of the execs ranking Miami last said. "Brian Flores won six games there with a tanking roster. The fanbase there has already gone through that. You just paid $45 million fully guaranteed for a quarterback (Malik Willis)."Hafley verbalized what the Dolphins' roster moves effectively said. This team is in a full reset after moving on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and so many other veterans."I was shocked Hafley said they are not going to be judged on wins and losses," another exec said. "The locker room does not want to hear that. You literally contradicted what your best player (De'Von Achane) said: 'Hey, this is a new year every year, why not us?' When your head coach puts that on record, man!"