Commentary The Odyssey has been massively successful both critically (it is at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and commercially (it has grossed $1.6 billion worldwide, #14 of all time). That being said, and contrary to some reporting, it did not play through the roof at its official Academy screening in LA — it was warmly but not effusively received, and its principal talent opted not to appear for a post-screening Q&A, which didn’t help matters. But it certainly has been seen and liked by more Academy members around the world than any other film, many of whom do love it, so it is indeed the clear frontrunner.

Other top-tier contenders include Project Hail Mary, which was also a giant critical and commercial success, and probably benefits from being a little more light-hearted than most of its competition; two Cannes darlings, La Bola Negra, a sweeping Spanish-language epic which is Netflix’s principal cause this awards season, and Fjord; and The Invite, a Sundance sensation that went on to very strong reviews and box office for a film of its size.

The title that is likeliest to pop out of the fall fests may well be Wild Horse Nine; it’s very quirky, but so too were Martin McDonagh’s earlier films Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, which were widely embraced by the Academy.