The frontrunners have a head start. The festivals have contenders ready to run them down. Let the games begin.
The film year has already delivered, led by Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a July event picture that doubled as the first true best picture launch of 2026. Back in May, Cannes fired the opening shots, sending Palme d’Or winner “Fjord,” Netflix-acquired Spanish-language epic “La Bola Negra” and Russian drama “Minotaur” down the Croisette with buzz that will trail them into the fall.
But a frontrunner in August is just a film with an earlier release date. Over the next six weeks, the Oscars race will unspool in waves — the thin air of Telluride, the carpets of Venice’s Lido, the crowds of Toronto, the tastemakers of New York — with a single afternoon screening able to rewrite the whole narrative.
The festivals are set, and the year is loaded. And a moonwalk, a Homeric voyage and a Pixar goodbye are all in play at the same time. Here’s where the race stands.
PROJECT HAIL MARY, Ryan Gosling, 2026. © Amazon MGM Studios /Courtesy Everett Collection
