The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index surged more than 13% in August 2026, its largest monthly gain since July 2012. That earlier spike coincided with the food price chaos that helped fuel the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa.
What’s driving the spike
Wheat is the main culprit. Prices reached three-year highs in August after attacks on Black Sea ports disrupted shipments from Russia and Ukraine, two countries that together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports.
Sugar and cocoa futures climbed roughly 20% or more during the same period, driven by El Niño, which hammered harvests in West Africa and India.
Middle East tensions added another layer of complexity earlier in 2026, affecting fertilizer and energy flows, raising production costs for farmers globally.
