International tourist arrivals in South Africa have recovered from the Covid-19 shock but have yet to show sustained growth beyond pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, this growth has been driven largely by visitors from neighbouring African countries, while many of the big-spending, long-haul markets seen as the primary targets of the government’s recent visa reforms have underperformed. South Africa recorded just more than 10.5-million international arrivals in 2025, a modest 2.6% increase from 2019 levels. Globally, international tourist arrivals rose by about 4% over the same period, while African destinations recorded growth of 17%, with Egypt and Morocco achieving increases of 46% and 54%, respectively. Visa reform, a key focus of Operation Vulindlela’s phase two reform agenda, is positioned as an economic growth intervention designed to boost international visitors as well as to attract more critical skills and investment. However, the country’s overall tourism recovery has been driven almost entirely by arrivals from other African countries, which are up 6.5% above 2019 levels. Three-quarters of these travellers came from Southern African Development Community (Sadc) markets, where most travellers already benefit from visa-free access, and further visa liberalisation is therefore likely to have limited impact. (Dorothy Kgosi) By contrast, arrivals from overseas markets — the primary target of visa reform — are 8.5% below their 2019 pre-pandemic peak. Asia represents the largest remaining gap in the recovery. The biggest drop-off has been from China, with visitor numbers down 59.3% relative to 2019, followed by Japan and South Korea (a drop-off of about 29% each), and then India, down 27%. China and India are among the key markets targeted by the trusted tour operator scheme, which aims to reduce barriers to travel from these countries. While about 77,000 visas have been issued through the programme, this has not yet translated into a corresponding increase in tourist arrivals. To be convinced that visa reform is working, we would need to see more visas issued and processing times fall; tourist arrivals from targeted markets rise; visitor nights and tourism spend increase; and, ultimately, tourism value-added rise, followed by an uptick in jobs and investment in the sector. There is a clear distinction between high-volume, regional travel and higher-value, long-haul tourism. Sadc visitors typically stay two to three days per trip, while other African visitors stay four to seven days. Overseas visitors stay eight to 14 days. They also spend far more per person and on quite different things. Overseas visitors are predominantly leisure travellers, with spending concentrated in accommodation and guided activities, whereas African visitors are more likely to travel for shopping and to visit friends and family, directing spending towards retail, transport and wholesale activities, according to South African Tourism. In 2025 African visitors spent R5,703 per person per trip to South Africa on average ― five times less than the average American visitor. However, there were just more than 8-million visitors from Africa in that year (77% of total international arrivals) and they collectively spent R46.2bn here (45.2% of total foreign direct spend). That is a big number. Yes, the biggest spenders were North Americans, shelling out R28,579 per person per trip on average. But given their relatively small number, only 457,683 people (4.4% of total international visitors), they collectively spent only R13bn here (12.8% of total foreign direct spend). South Africa also attracted 1.41-million European visitors in 2025. They spent R22,814 per person per trip on average, a collective R32.3bn (31.6% of total foreign direct spend). In addition, there were just more than 200,000 visitors from Asia last year. They spent R18,361 per person per trip on average and R4bn collectively (3.9% of the total). Tourism flows from Africa are likely to be more sensitive to proximity, land-border efficiency and cross-border economic and family links than to further visa liberalisation. Sustaining growth in these important regional markets will therefore depend in part on efficient and modernised land-border infrastructure. The ongoing redevelopment of South Africa’s busiest ports of entry provides an important opportunity to improve the movement of people and goods. Tourism flows from Africa are likely to be more sensitive to proximity, land-border efficiency and cross-border economic and family links than to further visa liberalisation. The Middle Eastern recovery is worth a closer look. Saudi Arabia is a useful example of an expanding source market in which South Africa appears to be gaining share. Saudi outbound tourism has grown strongly since 2019, but arrivals in South Africa have risen considerably faster, climbing by 128% in 2019-25. This suggests that South African-specific factors such as access, connectivity and product development may also be contributing. Moreover, Middle Eastern and Asian tourist arrivals are more prominent during the winter months, while European and North American visitors tend to visit in the South African summer. So, if visa reform helps to unlock markets in the Gulf and Asia it could support more consistent year-round demand. But of course, while visa reform helps to reduce the main administrative barrier to travel, other constraints ― including air connectivity, travel costs and affordability, border efficiency and perceptions of safety ― all influence whether potential visitors choose South Africa. Despite international tourists generally rating South Africa highly (with an overall visitor satisfaction score of 4.6 out of 5), the weakest scores were for safety & security (4) and roads (4.3), according to the 2025 International Tourism Annual Performance Report compiled by South African Tourism. This suggests that visa reform should form part of a broader tourism competitiveness agenda: improving access expands the pool of potential visitors, but sustained tourism growth also depends on the quality, safety and reliability of the visitor experience. Visa reform can widen the pool of potential visitors but it should ultimately be judged by whether those visitors come, stay longer, spend more and support investment and jobs. On that test, the reforms are promising, but the verdict is still out. • Murunzi is an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER). This is an edited version of the data story Visa Reform’s Next Test, which is available on the BER website.