Combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket dropped 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion, marking the first meaningful pullback after months of relentless growth in the prediction markets sector.
The decline follows a record-setting July that saw $50.59 billion in combined volume across the platforms. That peak had a very specific catalyst: the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19 and turbocharged sports betting contracts across both platforms.
The World Cup effect, in reverse
July’s $50.59 billion represented a 7.8% jump from June’s revised figure of $46.95 billion.
Sports contracts have accounted for over 88% of recent activity on Kalshi. Kalshi maintained 85-90% of its comparable weekly volume heading into late August, while Polymarket’s offshore platform saw a steeper contraction.
