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As AI lowers execution costs, capital allocation, strategic judgment, and scenario planning become greater sources of competitive advantage.
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Artificial intelligence has entered a capital-intensive new phase. Goldman Sachs $GS Research estimates global AI investment could reach about $1 trillion in 2026, underscoring the scale of infrastructure and development now underway. As access to more capable models and computers expands, the time and marginal cost of many execution‑focused tasks may continue to fall. Gartner highlights domain‑specific AI, physical AI, and intelligent simulation as emerging trends, potentially signaling a shift toward more specialized and embodied applications. These developments seem to sharpen a strategic question for business leaders. With powerful tools becoming broadly accessible, deciding where to concentrate capital, talent, and organizational focus may increasingly define competitive advantage.
That question may become more consequential in an environment where the conditions surrounding a decision can change quickly. EY has described supply chains as operating amid geopolitical disruption, trade uncertainty, regulatory volatility, cyber threats, and hidden dependencies, while also pointing to broader shifts in tariffs, markets, and global operating conditions. AI may help organizations process information and identify patterns within that complexity, yet standard predictive systems can still face difficulty when the actors influencing an outcome respond to one another. Historical data may offer a useful starting point, although it can provide only a partial guide when competitors revise their positions, regulators introduce new considerations, or boards alter plans in response to the same event.
