Chile’s economy shrank by 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, a jarring miss against forecasts that had called for 0.2% growth. The culprit: a brutal stretch of winter storms that knocked out copper mining operations across the country’s northern and central regions, dragging down the sector that underpins roughly a quarter of global mined copper supply.
The numbers paint a rough picture
Mining output fell 6.4% in Q2, acting as the primary anchor on Chile’s broader economy. Non-mining GDP managed only a 0.7% increase, not nearly enough to offset the damage from paralyzed extraction sites.
July brought more of the same. Chile’s copper production dropped 9.4% that month as severe weather conditions continued to batter operations.
Private producers have already started managing expectations. Antofagasta cut its full-year 2026 copper output guidance to 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes. Lundin Mining lowered its forecast for its Caserones mine to 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes following storm-related outages. Combined, the two companies trimmed their projections by 35,000 to 55,000 tonnes of copper that simply won’t materialize this year.
