Europe’s benchmark natural gas price crossed €70 per megawatt-hour on Monday for the first time since January 2023, when the continent was still reeling from the worst of its post-invasion energy crisis. The Dutch TTF front-month contract hit an intraday high of €70.49/MWh on August 31, driven by a familiar cocktail of geopolitical risk and supply anxiety.
The immediate catalyst: renewed fighting between the US and Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher and raised fresh concerns about LNG shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply squeeze meets storage shortfall
Facilities are currently filled to roughly 65%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 80-82%. That gap, roughly 15-17 percentage points, represents an enormous amount of gas that needs to be sourced, shipped, and injected before heating demand ramps up.
Qatar has extended its force majeure declaration on natural gas shipments through November 2026. The ongoing hostilities in the region have curtailed an estimated 17-20% of global LNG supply since early 2026.
