Most strategic planning starts with assumptions—what triggers demand, how markets will behave, how much capital will cost, the pace with which technology will evolve, how the government will move.
What if our biggest strategic risk is not in missing the signals, but interpreting it through outdated assumptions?
When assumptions break
The times no longer make predicting the future easy. The more important concern is recognizing which assumptions are already beginning to give way and periodically examining those upon which strategies are built. Which have the weakest evidence behind them, and what is the consequence if they were wrong? How much of strategy is really the courage to admit that something we believed yesterday is no longer true?
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