Ryan Preece’s surprise win Saturday night — the first of his Cup Series career — vaulted him into the 16th and final position for NASCAR’s playoffs after the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway.Those playoffs will look a little different this year. Gone is the elimination-round format of the past decade, which featured three, three-race rounds preceding a championship race and any race win automatically advancing a driver to the next round. Now, NASCAR has gone back to its “Chase” system — a 10-race playoff, with the driver with the most points across all races crowned the champion.Here’s a look at the 16-driver field for the Chase, with the best- and worst-case scenario for each.Tom Cruise addresses drivers after announcing "Days of Thunder" sequelJeff GluckDenny HamlinSeed: 1Starting points: 2,100Wins: 4 (Las Vegas, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono)Best career championship finish: 2nd (2010, 2025)Best-case scenario: It’s finally, finally Hamlin’s year. The best driver to never win a championship has announced 2027 will be his last full-time season, yet he’s clearly still atop his game. Hamlin won the regular-season championship and is No. 1 in top-fives, top-10s, laps led and average finish entering the Chase. In addition, the Chase tracks largely play to his strengths. If all goes well and he avoids the disasters that have so often plagued him in the final 10 races, we might finally see Hamlin as a NASCAR Cup Series champion.Worst-case scenario: Anything but a championship. Even a multi-win Chase and second-place points finish would be absolutely devastating for Hamlin, who has the gaping hole of a missing championship on his career resume and no longer can point to the chaotic elimination playoff format as the thing that robs him. Sure, the Chase is still a points reset and wipes away most of his lead over his competitors, but it should still reward the best driver over the final 10 races.Ryan BlaneySeed: 2Starting points: 2,075Wins: 3 (Phoenix, Atlanta 2, New Hampshire)Best career championship finish: First (2023)Best-case scenario: Blaney and the No. 12 team navigate the Chase format by maximizing their strengths (like short tracks and the superspeedway) while not shooting themselves in the foot with pit crew mistakes. That would leave Blaney in contention for the title, and he could very well win a second championship.Worst-case scenario: Blaney’s Ford team is unable to overcome the powerful Toyotas while his error-prone pit crew costs him valuable spots. There’s no reason Blaney as a driver can’t win the championship, but everything has to go right with execution over a 10-week stretch. His pit crew can’t keep bleeding positions when Blaney is having a good day.Ryan Blaney enters the Chase as Denny Hamlin’s closest challenger. (James Gilbert / Getty Images)Tyler ReddickSeed: 3Starting points: 2,065Wins: Five (Daytona 500, Atlanta 1, Circuit of the Americas, Darlington, Kansas)Best career championship finish: Fourth (2024)Best-case scenario: Reddick regains his first-half form and races to his first career championship. Through the first 14 races of the season, Reddick never finished outside of the top 15 and had astounding numbers: Five wins, nine top-five finishes and 362 laps led. If he has that kind of run again, no one can touch him.Worst-case scenario: Reddick continues his second-half form and can’t find the answers in time to salvage his season. In the last 11 races heading into the regular-season finale, Reddick had more finishes of 25th or worse (six) than 24th or better (five). He has just one finish better than eighth since the start of June (second at Pocono). That’s not exactly the recipe for a championship run.Ty GibbsSeed: 4Starting points: 2,060Wins: Two (Bristol, Iowa)Best career championship finish: 15th (2024)Best-case scenario: Gibbs ranks high in several major statistical categories, notably average finish (11.5), which is third best. With how much Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated this season, it favors Gibbs being able to maintain this consistency — especially at several tracks where he should contend at. Him winning a championship feels a little too optimistic, but a win (or two) along with a top-five points finish is realistic.Worst-case scenario: Frustration mounts following a couple of early substandard finishes, eventually derailing what has been Gibbs’ best season to date.Chase BriscoeSeed: 5Starting points: 2,055Wins: One (Chicagoland)Best career championship finish: Third (2025)Best-case scenario: With the Chase schedule setting up quite favorably, Briscoe capitalizes in a big way. He emerges as the guy to push Hamlin for the championship and when the checkered flag waves at the finale, Briscoe gets the better of his JGR teammate to win his first title.Worst-case scenario: Needing to raise his game, Briscoe can’t. He has too many stumbles that prove too costly, and he is never really much in the title picture.A favorable Chase track schedule gives Chase Briscoe a chance. (Chris Graythen / Getty Images)Christopher BellSeed: 6Starting points: 2,050Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: 3rd (2022)Best-case scenario: Bell shows why his seven second-place finishes this season easily could have been wins and puts his frustrating regular season behind him to win a first career Cup championship. Bell figures to be one of the biggest threats in the Chase, along with his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates.Worst-case scenario: Bell said that though his team’s ceiling this year has been high, the floor has been way too low. And that’s true: His 14.3 average finish is very un-Bell-like and currently ranks as his worst in the last five seasons. He could end up seventh or eighth in points if the No. 20 team can’t regain its usual form.Kyle LarsonSeed: 7Starting points: 2,045Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: First (2021, 2025)Best-case scenario: Larson channels Tony Stewart’s 2011 Chase run. That year, Stewart followed a winless regular season by blitzing the field with wins in five of 10 Chase races and steamrolling everyone in his path on the way to a third title. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Larson pull off something similar.Worst-case scenario: The miscues the No. 5 team frequently committed during the regular season carry over into the Chase. In addition, Hendrick continues to lag behind the JGR Toyotas. The mistakes combined with the speed discrepancy is too much to overcome, and Larson fails to win a single race this season.Chase ElliottSeed: 8Starting points: 2,040Wins: Two (Martinsville, Texas)Best career championship finish: First (2020)Best-case scenario: Elliott is one of the few non-Toyotas to straight up win on an intermediate-sized track, and with five such tracks in the Chase, maybe this bodes well for him to make an unexpected championship run. Also don’t put it past Hendrick Motorsports to find the mojo it’s been missing all season. If this happens, a top-five points finish is on the table.Worst-case scenario: This team has largely been in a malaise this season, with just a single top-10 finish in the past 12 races. It’s hard to fathom them flipping a switch. This is just not Elliott’s year.Hendrick and Chase Elliott will need something special to contend. (Sean Gardner / Getty Images)Joey LoganoSeed: 9Starting points: 2,035Wins: Two (North Wilkesboro, Richmond)Best career championship finish: First (2018, 2022, 2024)Best-case scenario: “Even Year Logano” gets hot and stuns the NASCAR world with another title. Yes, it really could happen. Logano and his No. 22 team seemed lost for much of this season, but they found speed at the right time and won on short tracks — Team Penske’s strength. The question is whether Penske has made enough gains to compete on intermediate tracks; there are five of those in the Chase.Worst-case scenario: Penske simply can’t reproduce its recent success on short tracks, leaving Logano without enough speed to work his magic. Logano can still shine at places like Gateway, Martinsville, Phoenix and Talladega. But if he’s racing with one arm tied behind his back at the mile-and-a-half tracks, it’s likely game over.Chris BuescherSeed: 10Starting points: 2,030Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: Seventh (2023)Best-case scenario: Buescher is a grinder, and his ability to earn finishes that often exceed his equipment’s capabilities is tailor-made for the Chase format. Capitalizing on others’ mistakes while avoiding his own could lead him to a single-digit finish in the standings.Worst-case scenario: RFK Racing backslid over the summer, and there is real concern this dip will carry into the Chase. If it does, Buescher is going to be hard-pressed to run well enough to be a factor; he has just a single top-10 finish over the past nine races. Buescher also hasn’t won since September 2024, a 70-race span.Daniel SuárezSeed: 11Starting points: 2,025Wins: One (Charlotte)Best career championship finish: 10th (2022)Best-case scenario: A bounceback year that saw Suárez unexpectedly make the Chase concludes with him earning a points finish around 10th. Helping his cause is a Chase schedule that features five intermediate-sized tracks, Spire Motorsports’ strength.Worst-case scenario: Lack of consistent speed and an inability to earn stage points — he ranks 16th out of 16 Chase drivers — is too much to overcome, leading to Suárez essentially being an afterthought for the next 10 weeks.Carson Hocevar is one of the playoff’s biggest wild cards. (James Gilbert / Getty Images)Carson HocevarSeed: 12Starting points: 2,020Wins: One (Talladega)Best career championship finish: First appearanceBest-case scenario: Hocevar tames his aggressive ways and puts together a smart, sensible 10 weeks en route to a fifth-place finish. It’s possible, but it’s more likely we’ll see Hocevar finish somewhere from ninth to 12th, as the Spire Motorsports cars aren’t better than five of the Toyotas, and they shouldn’t be beating Hendrick cars over a 10-week stretch. When you factor in the Penske cars as well, Hocevar would be overachieving to finish in the top 10.Worst-case scenario: There’s a chance his emotions could upset his racecraft, and if things go wrong, it could snowball quickly (either with a driver feud or bold move gone wrong). Hocevar might have the widest window of anyone in the Chase, and could conceivably finish anywhere from fifth to 15th.William ByronSeed: 13Starting points: 2,015Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: Third (2023, 2024)Best-case scenario: This has been a tough year for Byron. Yes, Hendrick and Chevrolet have struggled with their new car. But Byron has largely not been a factor, ranking outside the top 10 in average finish, laps led and overall points. That said, he’s playoff-tested and capable of maximizing whatever speed his cars may have. If all goes well, he could end up fourth.Worst-case scenario: The Chase turns into a continuation of an uneven regular season. Byron has only had back-to-back top-15 finishes one time since April, and if he can’t string together strong races and rack up the stage points, he could be out of contention quickly based on his Chase seeding.Bubba WallaceSeed: 14Starting points: 2,010Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: 10th (2023)Best-case scenario: Instead of the inconsistent results he showed throughout the regular season, Wallace elevates his game to rattle off strong finishes throughout the Chase. This is accompanied by him getting a win and finishing inside the top 10 for the first time in his career.Worst-case scenario: The rollercoaster that has defined Wallace’s season continues, leading to increased frustration and a finish at the bottom of the Chase standings.Austin CindricSeed: 15Starting points: 2,005Wins: NoneBest career championship finish: 11th (2024)Best-case scenario: Although Team Penske’s superiority on flat, short ovals isn’t the difference maker it was under the previous format, it still could carry Cindric to a career-best points finish. If he can finish well on those three Chase tracks (Gateway, Martinsville and Phoenix), then muster decent results elsewhere, he could push for a spot in the top 10.Worst-case scenario: If Penske doesn’t also have speed on the intermediates, it may doom Cindric to finishing towards the bottom of the field.Ryan PreeceSeed: 16Starting points: 2,000Wins: One (Daytona 2)Best career championship finish: First appearanceBest-case scenario: Preece puts together some solid runs reminiscent of his early-season form and finishes 10th in the point standings. If he maximizes his speed at RFK Racing, has some solid races on the short tracks and has a great Talladega race like he did at Daytona, Preece could exceed expectations.Worst-case scenario: The team is unable to take advantage of its last-minute opportunity after winning their way into the Chase and finishes where it started, in 16th. Anything better than where they’re starting the Chase is somewhat of a bonus after nearly missing it.