We’re down to two more races before the NASCAR Cup Series Chase begins, starting with the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday.There’s a lot at stake in this particular one: Denny Hamlin is on his way to locking in the No. 1 seed while other drivers are sweating their playoff futures. NASCAR reporter Jeff Gluck breaks down the biggest storylines and makes his predictions below.Dollar Tree 301
Denny Hamlin has the most NHMS wins among the field. Does he lock-in the No. 1 seed in style with a win this Sunday?Jeff: All Hamlin needs to secure the No. 1 seed is to avoid disaster, as he’s currently up by 115 points and needs only a 76-point lead to clinch, so this is essentially a boom-or-bust race. He and his No. 11 team can afford to go all out for the victory without caring how a bad finish would affect them. And given Joe Gibbs Racing’s strength in general, Hamlin should be able to be in contention all day on Sunday – if not win outright. But obviously he’ll have to contend with the Team Penske cars since they’ve been so strong lately.Jordan: Whether he officially clinches Sunday or not, Hamlin is going to be the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase – too much would have to go wrong for him for this not to happen, a level of comfort that affords him the ability to gamble should an opportunity arise to better his chance of winning at New Hampshire. But the reality is that Hamlin doesn’t need to take chances to win, he should have the speed to be in the mix as this is traditionally a strong track for both himself and Joe Gibbs Racing.Joey Logano has won two of the last four races. What would another top finish mean for where he stands in the Chase picture?Jeff: Logano is fearsome after skyrocketing from 20th in the standings to ninth, and he actually needs to stay hot in order to try and climb further in the standings before the Chase begins if he wants a realistic shot at winning the title after a tough start to the season. It would actually be fairly shocking if Logano (and Penske as a whole) didn’t run well at this point, especially on a short track where they’re known to excel. As mentioned earlier, this should absolutely be another JGR vs. Penske showdown on Sunday, and we should not expect a Chevrolet to be in the mix. (Only one Chevy driver has won since 2012: Kevin Harvick for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2016.)
