The Iran war exposed just how much the world relied on a narrow 20-mile-wide waterway. Soon after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, the latter threatened to strike ships trying to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, the channel for much of the Middle East’s oil and gas exports. The threat of shortages pushed countries across Asia to impose export bans, cut import duties, and start rationing fuel to maintain supplies.
Six months since the onset of the war, doomsday scenarios—price spikes, long lines at gas stations, power outages, and grounded flights—haven’t quite come to fruition, as increased production and hefty stockpiles blunted some of the damage.
It seems that normality, in some form, could be returning to the Strait. On Wednesday, Iran announced a new revenue-sharing agreement over the waterway, though a military spokesperson blamed the U.S. for “obstructing this process.”
Yet the revelation of how easy it was for Iran to block, and continue blocking, one of the world’s most important waterways is pushing governments to diversify their sources of energy.
And now, with the prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal in the near-term on life support and Iranian control of Hormuz now looking secure for years to come, what previously saved the global oil market in the first half of the year might not work for a second time.
