The Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election will not simply be decided by which candidate is the most popular nationally. The numbers from the 2023 presidential election shows a more in-depth contest. Three major candidates entered with geographically unique voter bases, turnout remained exceptionally low-although likely to change in the next cycle-, and the political map has moved significantly since the last presidential election.
President Bola Tinubu enters the race with the advantage of incumbency and a much larger political structure. Peter Obi, now running on the NDC ticket with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his running mate brings together two voter bases that were separate in 2023. Atiku Abubakar, meanwhile enters another presidential contest with a wider northern base and a new opposition platform.
Our analysis therefore focuses on candidate voting strength rather than party strength. Because political alignments and party labels have changed since 2023, votes won by APC, PDP, LP or NNPP in the last presidential election will not necessarily mean that they would automatically transfer to the same candidate in 2027.
2023 Baseline
President Bola Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8.79 million votes, ahead of Atiku with 6.98 million, Obi with 6.10 million and Kwankwaso 1.50 million votes.
