Aug. 28, 2026
Washington, United States, August 28th, 2026, Chainwire
As prediction-market volume hits record highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are trading several points apart depending on the venue. Predictions.io now tracks 9,700+ markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold in one place – with free fee and odds calculators so traders can see what a price actually costs them.
Prediction markets have never been bigger, or more contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US together posted a record $50.59 billion in combined volume in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the total. In the same month, New York City opened a probe into both leading venues, a Washington judge ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers in the state, and the CFTC began an internal review of so-called “mention markets.”
Amid that scrutiny, a simpler question has gone largely unexamined: when two venues list the same question, do they agree on the answer?
