El Niño threatens to deepen food insecurity in Southern Africa, as neighbouring countries struggle with insufficient grain supplies amidst looming drought conditions.
Countries in the Southern African Development Community could face a sharper food-security shock than South Africa if El Niño brings drought during the 2026/27 production season.
South Africa enters the season with a record maize harvest, large carry-over stocks, improved soil moisture and higher dam levels. Several neighbouring countries lack that protection.
Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia are already importing South African grain, indicating that domestic supplies are insufficient to cover annual needs.
These purchases come as countries finish harvesting, when grain would ordinarily be available, leaving little room for another poor harvest or price surge.
