In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America. Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture. You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.The last week has seen a bevy of bad news for the GOP with regard to 2026’s Senate contests. The Cook Political Report shifted Iowa and Texas to toss-up status. President Donald Trump’s national approval rating sits at 33% according to Reuters-Ipsos polling. Nate Silver now gives Democrats a 51% chance of retaking the Senate.Where did it all go wrong? Ignore the historical trends about the first midterm elections of an administration and consider that one big problem appears to be unvetted candidates who mostly got their nods off the back of personal loyalty to Trump.
North Carolina is ground zero for this predicament. There, Michael Whatley, Trump’s handpicked choice to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), is struggling. The former Republican National Committee and North Carolina GOP chairman is running 8.5 percentage points behind Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, according to RealClearPolitics. But what’s hurting Whatley isn’t just stubborn inflation and voters tiring of Trump. It’s his own resume. While Whatley has been in line with Trump on the question of post-2020 “election security,” he hasn’t exactly been a MAGA policy stalwart overall.As North Carolina GOP chairman, Whatley aggressively pushed for COVID-19 prisoner releases, lining up with the NAACP and the American Civil Liberties Union. He also aggressively pushed mail-in voting and personally defended it. In July 2020, his state party mailed out absentee ballot request forms, urging target voters to vote early. Neither the 2020 nor the 2023 state party platform, both adopted on his watch, contains language opposing North Carolina’s no-excuse absentee voting law. At the RNC, he became one of the party’s loudest advocates for early and mail-in voting: “Do I care how they vote? No, I do not,” he told reporters. The RNC’s “Bank Your Vote” program, built out under his leadership, has normalized the very voting methods Trump himself distrusts.President Donald Trump watches while Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley speaks to the troops on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, in Fort Bragg, North Carolina. (AP Photo/Matt Ramey)
