Last season represented the first time in 10 tries that the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t claim the AFC West crown.The Denver Broncos were on the right side of “luck,” going 11-2 in one-score games to end the Chiefs’ reign, who were on the less fortunate side of that coin with a 1-9 record in such games.It’s shaping up to be another interesting race in 2026, with sportsbooks like DraftKings listing odds that imply the Broncos, Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers each have around a 30 percent chance to win the division title. Here’s a closer look at the board as well as how my model forecasts every AFC West team’s season — including why the projections mirror the expectations of books.AFC West oddsAFC West projectionsTeamWinsPlayoffsDivisionSuper BowlChiefs9.658.4%33.5%4.6%Chargers9.455.8%31.4%5.1%Broncos9.151.7%28.4%3.3%Raiders6.217.80%6.8%0.4%This is the best and deepest division in the AFC, hence why there’s no runaway favorite.To take it a step farther: The Chargers, who my model rates as the best of the bunch, face the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL. The Chiefs are contending with a fair amount of uncertainty with Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL injury and questions on defense. And my model believes the Broncos’ 2025 season was quite fortunate and is thus expecting regression.