American consumers are feeling gloomy about the future, even as they acknowledge the present isn’t terrible. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 89.4 in August, down from a revised 90.2 in July, marking its lowest reading since January 2026.
A tale of two indexes
The Consumer Confidence Index is actually built from two components, and in August they moved in opposite directions. The Present Situation Index, which measures how people feel about current business and labor conditions, climbed 6.8 points to 121.2. The Expectations Index, however, fell 5.8 points to 68.2, reflecting deepening pessimism about business conditions, the labor market, and personal income over the next six months.
The Expectations Index sitting at 68.2 is particularly notable because readings below 80 have historically been associated with recession risk.
Inflation expectations creep higher
