On Monday, Cal Raleigh finally saw a long-awaited breakthrough. He homered in the first off Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler. Then he did it again — this time a solo shot in the fifth. Then … he homered again, sending Chase Shugart’s 90.2-mph cutter out of T-Mobile Park in the seventh inning. Monday’s breakout game aside, however, it has been a rough season for the Seattle Mariners catcher.The most striking thing about this year, though? How little has changed with Raleigh’s swing compared to last year. In terms of top-line results, no batter has fallen off more aggressively than Raleigh from last year to this year. But in terms of how he’s swinging the bat physically through the space, not much has changed.Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, Trea Turner — there’s a list of big stars, including Raleigh, who have come up short so far this year. Raleigh will most likely be alone on one ignominious list: no qualified hitter a year after hitting 60 home runs has hit fewer than Mark McGwire’s 32 home runs in 2000. Raleigh has 17 homers and will likely set a record for follow-up futility. But with a homer over the weekend and three more on Monday night, there are signs that Raleigh is coming out of his season-long slump. So what, exactly, has been ailing him all year?There’s no question that something has been wrong with the 2025 American League MVP runner-up. And as the general public, we have more tools than ever when it comes to diagnosing a swing flaw. But peruse those metrics that capture the shape of Raleigh’s swing, and not much seems to have changed.Is he swinging slower? Yes, but only by 0.3 mph. He’s still above the 80th percentile in swing speed.Is his swing flatter? No, not at all, his average swing tilt is the same as last year, from both sides of the plate.Is he too pull-happy? No, his attack direction on the ball is almost exactly the same as last year.Is he letting the ball travel? No, not really, he’s still 3.5 inches out in front of the average hitter, though he is letting the ball travel a little more than last year.This last one is important, though, not because of anything mechanical, but because it speaks to something that’s fairly unique about Raleigh as a hitter. He gets to the ball really far out in front, or at least he did last year. Last year, only 14 out of 198 qualified hitters went and got the ball closer to the pitcher than Raleigh. That led to the league’s second-highest rate of pulling balls in the air. Hence the home runs.Now there are 31 hitters who get the ball further out in front than Raleigh and six hitters who are pulling more balls in the air. That’s a change, but he’s still near the top of both leaderboards. And really, we’re starting to get closer to the biggest difference in the underlying stats for Raleigh between this year and last year.