Recent statements by Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, have sparked significant debate in Tehran regarding his authority and intentions. Rezaei has threatened to halt Iranian oil exports, target U.S. allies, and consider changes to Iran’s nuclear policy. These threats come amidst ongoing armed conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel, which has been active since February 2026. Rezaei’s comments indicate a potential escalation, particularly given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear leverage. Markets appear to interpret these developments as decreasing the likelihood of a US-Iran deal in 2026.
Key Takeaways
Rezaei’s threats to stop oil exports and consider nuclear changes suggest increased tensions between Iran and the U.S.
Market pricing suggests participants view these developments as decreasing the probability of a US-Iran deal in 2026.
The current geopolitical situation, including the conflict involving regional allies, is consistent with a decline in YES probabilities for a deal.
