Gold is doing that thing again where it makes forecasters look silly. JPMorgan slashed its near-term gold price target in early July, only to watch spot prices blow past the revised number six weeks later.
A forecast that aged quickly
On July 3, JPMorgan Global Research cut its Q4 2026 gold target to $4,500 per ounce, down sharply from a prior call of $6,000. The Q3 forecast was trimmed to $4,300 per ounce. The reasoning was straightforward: softer demand from critical buying sectors and the risk that the Federal Reserve might hike rates earlier than expected if inflation stays elevated.
For most of July and into mid-August, gold cooperated with the bearish revision, bouncing between $4,170 and $4,400 per ounce. Then it didn’t.
By August 19, spot gold hit $4,525 per ounce, leapfrogging JPMorgan’s downgraded Q4 target with more than four months left in the year. The move was driven partly by US Treasury actions and shifting expectations around the Fed’s rate path.
