Welcome to Monday’s Washington Secrets. A lot has changed in the Senate races during the past week. What was supposed to be an easy hold for Republicans now looks like a proper contest. Today, we have exclusive focus group research from Iowa, detailing the issues that matter to independent voters there and how they will make their decision. It is not good news for Republican hopes of holding the seat vacated by Joni Ernst.Technically, Republicans can lose the Hawkeye state and hold the upper chamber. Their three-seat majority means they have a little wiggle room.
But in reality, losing Iowa, where Donald Trump triumphed by more than 13 points just two years ago, would spell the sort of Democratic dominance that would put huge pressure on Republican-held states such as Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and even Ohio and Texas. It would be game over.Last week, things shifted in the wrong direction for Republicans. The influential Cook Political Report moved Iowa (and Texas) from its “leans Republican” column to “toss-up.”To test the terrain, J.L. Partners recruited a panel of six Independent voters — four men, two women; four who described themselves as “moderate,” one who said they were “somewhat left-wing” and one “somewhat right-wing” — to talk about the issues that matter to them.The results may make difficult reading for Republican strategists, but they also suggest ways to craft a message that could yet see the state stay red.Top concern: Tariffs and cost of living
