Summary:Polymarket Odds And New Polls Show Le Pen Leading France's Presidential RaceNew polling shows Marine Le Pen defeating every tested runoff opponentNomura says markets increasingly favor the "fiscally prudent" right over the reckless left Nomura sees Europe lurching right during an 18-month election cycleFrance's Le Pen Leads French Presidential RaceEarly Monday, we previewed a Nomura report that expects an 18-month election cycle across Europe, shifting the continent toward populism, with elections scheduled this year in Germany and Sweden, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and Poland in 2027.Shortly after we released the note, new polling data from France showed, as The Guardian put it:France loves a battle-scarred survivor. Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac clawed their way back from political failure to become presidents of the republic. There is a significant chance that Marine Le Pen will be next.The latest Toluna-Harris poll shows Marine Le Pen winning every tested 2027 French presidential runoff:Le Pen 68%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 32%Le Pen 55%, Édouard Philippe 45%Le Pen 57%, Gabriel Attal 43%Le Pen's advantage extends beyond a matchup with the far left. She also holds double-digit leads over two leading establishment candidates, indicating that her National Rally party would enter the election as the clear favorite under these scenarios.France, Toluna-Harris poll: