The rain is not the tradeA very strong El Niño, a category seen only three times in the past 75 years (1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16), is increasingly becoming the base case. Odds have risen from roughly 63% in June to 81% for the October–December peak, with a 73% chance of reaching the strong threshold as early as July–September.Historically, the damage tends to arrive in two waves: September–October and January–March.