UBS Global Wealth Management now thinks the S&P 500 will close 2026 at 8,100, up from its prior call of 7,900. The bank also lifted its mid-2027 target to 8,400 from 8,200, citing stronger-than-expected corporate profits and a broadening earnings story across sectors.
The revised targets, announced on August 21, land while the index sits in the 7,641 to 7,674 range. That leaves roughly 5.5% to 6% of implied upside to the new year-end mark, and about 9.5% to 10% to the mid-2027 goal.
What’s behind the upgrade
The core driver is earnings, not enthusiasm. UBS raised its S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2026 to $350, up from $335, and its 2027 estimate to $400, up from $375. Those are meaningful bumps, roughly 4.5% and 6.7% respectively, and they reflect what UBS is calling an “earnings reset.”
That framing matters. The bank is explicitly saying it’s not betting on richer valuations to do the heavy lifting. In fact, the new 8,100 target implies a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about 20.3x, which is actually lower than the 21.1x baked into the previous forecast. Translation: UBS thinks stocks will go higher because companies are making more money, not because investors are willing to pay more per dollar of profit.
