Not all news moves markets equally. A new analysis from Crypto Briefing’s prediction-market data desk, published under the Vera research label, tracked 476,000 news-story-to-Polymarket pairings across 618 distinct news sources over a 56-day window ending June 25, 2026. The central question: how often does a news story trigger a price movement in a related prediction market contract within one hour of publication?
The answer, on average, is 15.2% of the time. But that average conceals a wide and telling dispersion.
The sources that actually move markets
The study, titled “Attention Gap,” found that major financial news wires produced move rates below the 15.2% overall benchmark. Meanwhile, some specialist accounts and niche sources consistently exceeded it.
Topic matters even more than source
