BBVA sees firm Turkish growth in second quarter
Türkiye’s economy likely posted firmer-than-expected growth in the second quarter of 2026 despite the conflict in the Middle East, according to a new report by BBVA Research, which said industrial activity supported growth while services remained flat and construction continued to weaken.
BBVA Research estimated annual GDP growth of 3 percent for the second quarter, implying quarter-on-quarter growth of around 1 to 1.5 percent. The bank said hard economic data surprised on the upside compared with its earlier expectations.
The report noted that domestic demand softened noticeably during the quarter, with private consumption likely contracting from the previous quarter.
At the same time, temporary factors helped exports recover on a quarterly basis despite weak underlying external demand. Falling imports also contributed positively, allowing net exports to make a positive contribution to both annual and quarterly growth in the second quarter, said the report.
