Even before Donald Trump returned to the White House, Washington had indicated its intention to pivot resources away from Europe – but over the last year and a half, that pivot has accelerated.
The second Trump administration has made frequent announcements of troop withdrawals and cuts to crucial military capabilities made available to the alliance, while Trump himself has repeatedly derided NATO itself as a "paper tiger" – even threatening to pull the US out of the alliance altogether.
To fill the gaps being created by the ongoing US drawdown, Europe and Canada have significantly increased core defence expenditure with an agreement to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence by 2035.
Known as "NATO 3.0", this is effectively the implementation of Washington's plan for a fundamental reduction in its military contribution to NATO’s defence of Europe. As the US steps back from the continent, Europe will need to step up and attempt to fill the resultant gaps.
Crucially, the concept of NATO 3.0 was developed in the US, specifically by Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby, who has long advocated a complete overhaul of the US's Europe policy.
