The Westminster consensus surrounding Nigel Farage’s victory over Count Binface on Thursday is that it has changed nothing. The parliamentary investigation into his undeclared £5million gift will recommence. The scrutiny of shady donations to and from his closest allies will continue. The decline in his personal approval ratings, and party’s national polling, will continue.But I now believe the result will have one major additional impact. A 2027 election is now all but guaranteed.‘The thinking is next May, around the time of the Bank Holiday,’ a senior Burnham ally revealed to me. ‘That’s where people are moving.’Officially, Downing Street is moving to ensure any talk of a snap poll is swiftly quashed. ‘It won’t happen,’ one Burnham aide insisted to me.But it probably will. For the following reasons.Firstly, despite the desperate spin from his allies, Nigel Farage’s Clacton gamble failed. Within Reform a benchmark had been set of 70 per cent of the vote.In the end he fell well short, despite the huge resources ploughed in by the party, and the fact he wasn’t facing a serious challenge from any of his main opponents.The high turnout of 44 per cent also told its own story. Whilst it showed Farage is able to motivate his base, it also demonstrated how effective he is at mobilising his opponents.Count Binface, without any serious organisation, managed to secure nearly 30 per cent of the vote. Almost a third of Clacton voters were prepared to go out on a sweltering day to back a man dressed as a bin in order to register their disapproval of Reform and its leader.As one Labour official said, ‘Farage is going to have to spend more and more time and resources trying to solidify his base, and will just keep driving more and more soft voters away nationally.’ Andy Burnham in Cornwall yesterday. An election next year is all but nailed on, writes Dan Hodges One of the reasons is that Nigel Farage's Clacton gamble failed – almost a third of voters were prepared to back a man dressed as a bin in order to register their disapproval of ReformThis appears to be why Farage conspicuously disappeared straight after the result was announced.As one Minister observed, ‘I can understand why he didn’t go to the count. He didn’t want the optics of standing next to a bin. But why no victory speech later? Or rally with supporters?‘He literally had the opportunity to set the narrative. And he didn’t take it. It’s weird.’The old Nigel Farage would have been milking his victory for all its worth. Instead, he vanished.All of which indicates we have indeed reached peak Reform. Which will in turn have major implications for the date of the next election.The expectation amongst all the major parties is that, at some point over the next six months, the Conservatives will overtake Reform in the polls. As one shadow minister explained: ‘They may get a brief post-Clacton bounce. But then the House will return, and the focus will switch to Kemi and Burnham at the Despatch Box. Farage won’t feature.‘Then we’ll have the Budget. And Reform never have anything serious to say on the economy. So we’ll keep eating into their lead.’The moment ‘crossover’ occurs the political narrative will shift decisively. Kemi Badenoch and her team will be able to frame themselves as the insurgents, and the only realistic alternative to Andy Burnham and Labour.The prospect of a Reform government will rapidly recede. And that will be the moment Burnham and his team are forced to act.‘One thing is certain. We have to call an election whilst the Right are still split,’ one cabinet minister conceded. ‘A small recovery for the Tories is fine. But once they get their noses ahead of Reform they’ll start to consolidate the anti-Labour vote. And we’ll need to go to the polls before that gets locked in.’A second issue relates to the so-called ‘Burnham bounce’.Within No10 there is a growing feeling the Prime Minister has cut through with the voters in a more substantive way.On a visit to Stourbridge on Thursday he was met with a spontaneous round of applause, which surprised and delighted his aides.But again, Burnham’s strategists are also realistic about the life-span of his current popularity.‘We think its more than just a bounce,’ one revealed. ‘There’s definitely been a connection. But we’re not daft. We know it’s not going to last forever.’Within the cabinet, the view is that Burnham’s honeymoon may last another six months. But that after that, political gravity will start to reassert itself.‘People genuinely like him,’ one minister told me, ‘I get it on the doorsteps in my constituency. But we haven’t had to make any tough decisions yet. And when we do, people are going to start to get p****d off with him.’Which links to another reason why the window of electoral opportunity for Andy Burnham will begin to close relatively shortly.Within No10, the Treasury and across the Government, there is a belief politics is currently being conducted in a form of suspended animation. That’s because the full impact of the Iran War, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet come crashing down on the British economy. And when it does, the effect will be severe.‘Inside No10 they’re bracing for impact,’ a minister revealed.‘There’s a sense they can ride it out initially. Because Andy’s new, he can point to Trump, and point to Keir [Starmer] and Rachel [Reeves] and say, “Look I inherited this mess. It’s going to take some time for me to clear it up”. But that will only work for so long.’There is one final reason that, despite Downing Street’s strenuous denials, an election next year is all but nailed on.Burnham has a series of major policy issues he wants to confront. The cost-of-living crisis. Defence spending. Social care. The rough sleeping crisis. And he cannot properly get to grips with any of them whilst operating within the straightjacket of the existing Labour manifesto.One minister predicted, ‘Next summer Louise Casey will deliver her social care report. And it will be impossible to even begin to address it without getting a new mandate from the voters. It’s the policy that’s dearest to Andy’s heart.‘That’s the moment I think he’ll say, “OK, if we actually want to fix anything big we need to take it to the country”.’At the moment the Prime Minister is publicly saying there will be no dash to the polls.But the decline of Reform, the sell-by date stamped on his current popularity, the Iran war aftershocks and the handcuffs shackled to him in the form of his predecessor’s manifesto mean an early poll is looming.Don’t tell Brenda from Bristol. Andy Burnham will call an election in 2027.