1) Nigel Farage is king of Clacton
The Reform UK leader won the oddest by-election in UK political history. His margin of victory was that usually secured by an Iranian hardliner – 63 per cent of the vote – rather than the full North Korean or Saddam Hussein 99 per cent. Reform will be pretty happy with that as anything over 60 per cent was going to be a very healthy margin of victory.
The turnout also shows this was not a trick of the light. Forty-four per cent is very healthy in a by-election, particularly one which was not a contest, since it can easily fall to 25-30 per cent away from a general election.
Farage’s team is also pleased that his total number of votes, 22,239, was 1,014 more than he secured at the general election in 2024. His majority increased from 8,405 to 12,784. We can safely conclude that the vast majority of the people of Clacton have looked at the furore around Farage’s finances – and the political class dismissing this by-election as a farce – and said to themselves: ‘I don’t care. Nigel is our guy.’
2) A recall vote will fail
