The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model just took a significant haircut. The real-time GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2026 fell to 4.3% as of August 14, down from 5.8% just eight days earlier. For context, the estimate was riding as high as 6.2% on August 3, meaning roughly a third of the projected growth evaporated in less than two weeks.
What’s dragging the estimate down
Two components drove most of the revision. The nowcast for real personal consumption expenditures fell sharply from 4.1% to 2.5%. The forecast for real gross private domestic investment dropped from 17.9% to 15.2%.
How GDPNow actually works
GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Atlanta Fed. It doesn’t reflect the views of any economist, policymaker, or committee. The model is a purely statistical exercise that mirrors the methodology that the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses to calculate GDP, then feeds in the latest available data as it’s released throughout the quarter.
