According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of the Fed implementing more than one rate hike before mid-2027 have dropped meaningfully, suggesting traders are pricing in a longer stretch of monetary policy stasis than previously expected.
What the numbers actually say
The CME 30-Day Federal Funds futures show reduced odds of multiple 25 basis point hikes before mid-2027. On prediction platform Kalshi, traders are pricing in roughly 62% odds that at least one rate hike will occur before July 2027. The probability of multiple hikes has fallen considerably.
The probability of a hike at the September 2026 meeting is hovering between 30% and 40%, depending on which data release you’re looking at.
Goldman Sachs has weighed in with a forecast suggesting the Fed won’t begin cutting rates until June and December 2027. J.P. Morgan, meanwhile, has projected that the Fed’s next rate hike could come in Q3 2027.
