Fitch Ratings confirmed on August 22, 2025 that the United States keeps its Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘AA+’, paired with a Stable Outlook.
Fitch’s affirmation does not mean the US fiscal picture is improving. The agency projects the US debt-to-GDP ratio will climb from 114.5% at the end of 2024 to 127% by the close of 2027.
On the growth side, Fitch revised its real GDP forecast for 2026 down to approximately 1.9%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from its March 2025 estimate. The 2027 outlook sits in a similar range, around 2%.
The agency pointed to several headwinds compressing that forecast: elevated inflation weighing on consumer spending, energy price volatility tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the knock-on effects of tariff policy rippling through supply chains and import costs.
Fitch’s reasoning rests on four pillars that it cited explicitly: the sheer size of the US economy, high per-capita income levels, an active and flexible business environment, and the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency.
