The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates four states — Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine — as “toss ups.” It considers Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to be “Lean Democrat,” while Iowa and Texas fall into the “Lean Republican” category.That map is unfavorable to Republicans, given that six of those nine seats have GOP incumbents. Yet neither party is poised to win a decisive majority in a chamber where real legislative action requires 60 votes.
Below is a breakdown of the “toss-up,” “lean Democratic,” and “lean Republican” states that will give each party a path to the Senate majority in November.
Toss Up: Alaska
Two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan will defend his seat against former Rep. Mary Peltola. Sullivan’s challenger was the last Democrat to represent Alaska statewide, serving in Alaska’s sole House of Representatives seat from 2023 to 2025.Sullivan is a reliable conservative, though he has occasionally broken from President Donald Trump’s agenda on topics like the White House ballroom and the Department of Justice’s Anti-Weaponization Fund.Peltola, meanwhile, has stressed her independent streak as an outdoorswoman and Yup’ik native. She is one of the few Democrats to have received a National Rifle Association endorsement in the past, though the NRA is backing Sullivan this cycle.Trump won Alaska by 13 percentage points in 2024. Yet ranked choice voting, a strong candidate, and a fundraising advantage all give Democrats hope they can flip the seat. Peltola raised $7 million in the second quarter compared to Sullivan’s $2 million, but the GOP senator had $2.3 million more on hand as of late June.The race also took an unexpected turn when Dan J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher, registered for the ballot. Republicans took that Sullivan to court, arguing that his political aspirations were a stunt to confuse voters who intended to vote for the similarly-named senator.The Alaska Supreme Court greenlit his candidacy, however. Both Sullivans will appear on the ballot for the Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary, with Dan S. Sullivan’s box specifying that he is the incumbent. The top four vote getters will advance to the general election.
