As the Treasury weighs higher alcohol taxes, new research challenges the industry's claim that the illicit market grew by 55% - and the numbers do not add up.
Despite becoming poorer between 2017 and 2024, South Africans consumed more tax-paid alcohol, casting doubt on industry claims that the illicit market has expanded significantly as Treasury weighs further increases in excise taxes.
According to analysis by University of Cape Town economist Corné van Walbeek, director of UCT's Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, aggregate consumption of tax-paid alcohol increased by 24.2% between 2017 and 2024.
The population aged 15 and older grew by 14.7% over the same period, which Van Walbeek calculated meant per-capita consumption of tax-paid alcohol increased by 8.3%.
At the same time, Van Walbeek's presentation showed that per-capita GDP declined by 4.7%, while household disposable income per capita fell by 1.5%. "Essentially what that boils down to is we have become poorer over the past seven years," he said.
