Trump is banking on the economic crisis in Iran to achieve what American firepower could not.
He told Axios this week that the US was “low-keying” the military assault. Iran’s economy is in a “very bad shape”, he said, adding that he was “watching Iran” as inflation rose and living standards dropped.
The comments indicated a shift in strategy: from the June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that promised phased sanctions relief and a $300bn reconstruction or investment fund, back to the economic pressure campaign Trump unleashed in 2018 when he unilaterally withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions.
Trump’s strategy appears to be to wait and see whether economic hardship exacerbated by the losses inflicted during the war triggers an uprising, forces a change of government or at least compels Tehran to accept an American deal and make major concessions.
And some (especially Iran hawks) believe he could be on the right track. If economic pressure is sustained, protesters could return to the streets and Iran could be forced to make a deal.
