Indian equities are likely to see another muted session on Thursday as elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions offset supportive global cues. Softer US inflation and gains across Asian markets offer some relief, while financials and Tata Group stocks remain in focus.
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Another dull day is on the cards for Indian stock investors and traders, as Gift Nifty points to a slightly weaker start on Thursday. Despite stable and positive global cues with most equities across the Asia-Pacific region up in early deals, Indian stocks continue to waver amid firm crude oil prices.On the macro front, India’s CPI inflation slightly rose to 4.45% YoY, in line with our estimate of 4.4% YoY and the June-26 print of 4.38% YoY, breaching the RBI’s inflation threshold for the second month since January-25. With super-core inflation contained and the recent rise in headline inflation largely driven by food prices, the domestic growth-inflation backdrop may not warrant a policy rate hike at this juncture. We expect the RBI to maintain status quo throughout CY26E, with the possibility of a 25bps rate hike in Q1CY27E (Q4FY27E). The timing of the Fed rate hike remains crucial,” said Elara Securities.Global risk appetite improved after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. Sentiment received an additional boost from another round of strong earnings from AI infrastructure companies, sparking broad-based gains in technology stocks. Reflecting the improved backdrop, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading more than 1% higher, while South Korea’s Kospi has advanced over 3%, providing supportive regional cues for Indian markets.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: Elevated crude oil prices, driven by the continuing U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, remain the primary overhang for domestic equities and are likely to keep investor sentiment measured.According to Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, although Brent crude has eased modestly to below $89 per barrel, the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets elevated. Domestically, Tata Group stocks are likely to remain in focus following the resignation of the group’s chairman, while Bank Nifty’s outperformance yesterday (+0.77%) suggests financials could lead any market recovery.Published on August 13, 2026
