SummaryTrump claims "total control" of Hormuz, signals strategy of continued economic pressure.Iran declares "victory" & says it can sustain the conflict & outlast.Iran shifts to a "survival economy" to withstand sanctions, Washington's economic warfare, naval blockade.Peace talks basically not happening, with Pakistan reporting "absolutely no progress."Tehran: Hormuz remains closed until Washington accepts all conditions.US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Yes 23% · No 78%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *Trump Claims 'Total Control' of HormuzIn his latest Wednesday Truth Social post, Trump issues a familiar refrain (one that will likely be on repeat up to the November midterms), claiming that the USA has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and "I think we will keep it". It's also yet more confirmation that he's opting for economic siege warfare as the US military campaign is on halt. He also did his bizarre "Praise be to Allah!" sign off...US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Yes 23% · No 78%View full market & trade on Polymarket Iran's Military Leadership: 'Victory is on Our Side'It has become beyond obvious that there is no broader peace process and that things are in a stalemated situation amid what's broadly seen as a Washington retreat from military confrontation, leaving Iran to press its own vision of management over the Strait of Hormuz with Oman.While President Trump has settled into a waiting game which once again bets on sanctions and economic warfare to eventually force Tehran to bend, Iranian military leaders are declaring that "victory is on our side".Prior file image via Asia SentinelIran Becomes 'Survival Economy'The Wall Street Journal has noted that the Islamic Republic has entered a 'survival economy' with the country’s rulers "taking time-tested steps to keep their chronically battered economy functioning just enough to resist a drawn-out campaign."There's no doubt that infrastructure along with various key industries and the Iranian currency has been severely tested and battered, but the WSJ outlines strategies of this survival mode as follows:Tehran is rationing scarce goods, limiting access to foreign currency, slashing investment and shifting more of the burden onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state, analysts say. The result will be a deepening economic malaise that leads to rising poverty and dysfunction, but also more room for Iran’s leaders to stall talks with the U.S.That leaves Trump’s strategy resting on a risky assumption that Iran will crack before Washington does. Mediators have warned their U.S. counterparts that Iran has been living under sanctions for years and betting that Tehran will compromise because of economic pressure won’t likely yield results. Instead, Iran will likely continue to escalate attacks to raise the price for Washington and its allies.Such a 'risky assumption' was on display from even the very start of Operation Epic Fury nearly six months ago and nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of the Iranian system 'cracking'. Within merely the first two weeks of war back in early March, we highlighted some of Washington's persisting false assumptions in: Escalation Trap: Misreading Iran's Internal Power Dynamics.Stalled Talks, Maximum ConditionsMeanwhile, Gulf and regional mediators are still clinging to hope that some form of ceasefire can limp along and be put back in full force, also with efforts to get the US and Iran talking again. As a Wednesday, per Bloomberg:Pakistan said the 60-day deadline for a US-Iran MoU may be extended, but the larger peace process has stalled. Earlier, Donald Trump said the US "totally" controls the Strait of Hormuz. Oil wavered. Neither of these things are true - at this point the MoU is dead with Iran weeks ago having already pulled out while declaring in null. Also, if the US military 'totally' controlled the strait then there would be no crisis that must be 'resolved' and global oil would be transiting at full tilt again.🇮🇷 “Certainly, victory is on our side.”
