The person managing $2.2 trillion of Norway’s oil money just posted the best half-year return in the fund’s history. He does not sound particularly happy about it.
Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, told Bloomberg he remains deeply cautious about forward-looking risks despite the Government Pension Fund Global delivering a 9.4% return in the first half of 2026, equivalent to 1,753 billion Norwegian kroner. His worry list reads like a greatest-hits album of things that keep institutional investors awake: inflated AI valuations, sticky inflation made worse by tariffs, and geopolitical conflict that shows no signs of cooling.
Record returns, record anxiety
The fund’s equity portfolio returned 13.0% in the first six months of 2026, beating its benchmark by 0.22 percentage points. Asian technology stocks were the primary engine behind those gains.
For a fund exceeding $2.2 trillion in assets, a 35% drawdown would translate to losses north of $770 billion.
