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After more than five months of conflict, oil markets continue to surge and tumble over the latest developments in the US-Iran clash, including United States President Donald Trump’s shifting pronouncements.

What is behind the market’s volatility?

While the potential vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as a risk, oil markets have still been caught off guard by Iran’s ability to largely close the crucial waterway.

“What really shakes the market are surprises… and the Hormuz closure was a shock,” said Jim Burkhard, head of global energy crude oil research at S&P Global.