https://www.scrippsnews.com/business/company-news/will-spacex-buy-tesla-elon-musk-is-not-revealing-his-plans

A recent report by the Wall Street Journal highlights a potential catalyst for a Tesla and SpaceX merger, embedded within Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla CEO pay package. The package includes a clause that could accelerate Musk’s payout if Tesla undergoes a change in control, such as a merger with SpaceX. This clause waives operational milestones, leaving only valuation targets in play, which could simplify the path to a substantial payout for Musk. Speculation about a potential merger has been ongoing, with previous reports suggesting collaborative projects between Tesla and SpaceX, although no formal agreement has been announced.

The prediction market concerning a potential Tesla and SpaceX merger by December 31 reflects modest expectations, with the probability currently at 17.5% for an announcement by that date. This is a slight decrease from 18% a week ago. The speculation has been fueled by the potential strategic benefits that a merger could offer, as well as Musk’s history of integrating his ventures. Despite the current odds, significant market attention remains on any developments that could indicate a shift towards a merger.