Two crypto prediction market startups announced they were winding down within 90 minutes of each other on Monday morning, both giving users until Sept. 30 to pull their money out.
The venues that closed sat at opposite ends of the market. Trepa built its own mechanism on Solana, paying users by how close their numerical guess landed to an outcome. Fireplace built a professional trading terminal on top of Polymarket and charged a fee for routing orders there. Neither found a position that survived contact with the two exchanges that now absorb nearly all the trading.
Kalshi and Polymarket took 93.3% of the past 30 days' volume across the 40 prediction market venues DefiLlama tracks with volume adapters — $13.87 billion of $14.87 billion. Kalshi alone accounted for 75.7%. The third-largest venue, BNB Chain-based OPINION, took 2.8%. Kalshi has raised $2.685 billion and was last valued at $22 billion; Intercontinental Exchange has put $1.6 billion into Polymarket across two tranches. Trepa raised $420,000. Fireplace raised $1.5 million.
Trepa's founders, who signed the announcement as Jong and Leon, published roughly 1,200 words on what went wrong. The company raised its pre-seed in August 2025 led by Colosseum, with participation from Ignight Capital and angels including Balaji Srinivasan, and launched on Solana mainnet on Dec. 8, 2025. Its last playable round is Aug. 12.
