Outside the US, we have a couple of G10 central banks in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision tomorrow, with our economists (and the market) expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.35%. Norges Bank follows on Thursday with a 25% probability of a hike priced in.In Europe, the key release will be the UK’s Q2 GDP report on Thursday. Our economists expect June GDP to contract by -0.1% mom, leaving quarterly growth at +0.4% qoq, although risks are seen as tilted to the downside. Elsewhere, Norway and Denmark both publish July CPI figures today.On the corporate side, the earnings season is becoming less intensive, with 400 out of the S&P 500 having now reported, but several notable companies remain on the calendar. In the US, investors will focus on results from Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave, while in China attention will fall on Tencent and BYD.Recapping last week now and markets were dominated by developments surrounding talks with Iran. Investors priced de-escalation in Middle East tensions as negotiations between Iran and Oman progressed, though some of that optimism then faded as details of a potential agreement on Thursday raised questions over whether the US would accept the deal and just how free-flowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be. Energy prices moved sharply lower through the middle of the week, and while Brent crude rebounded from lows of around $78/bbl on Wednesday, it still finished the week down -7.29% to $83.55/bbl (+1.29% on Friday). WTI crude was down -7.67% to $78.18/bbl (+1.15% on Friday), while European natural gas futures slid by -4.42% over the week. The fall in energy prices supported a risk-on move, helping the S&P 500 (+3.58%, +0.62% Friday), Stoxx 600 (+1.70%, +0.31% on Friday), DAX (+2.69%, +0.69% Friday) and CAC 40 (+2.41%, +0.17% Friday) all reach new record highs. For both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ (+5.19%, +1.30% Friday), this also marked the largest weekly gains since April. Equities were also supported by the continued rebound in the AI trade that had started late the previous week. The Phily Semiconductor (Sox) Index rose +9.24% last week (+2.56% on Friday) after a difficult July. Other risk assets also benefited, with US HY credit spreads (-15bps) seeing their joint biggest weekly tightening since April.