Get the latest news and updates from Dawn
Wheat is back at the centre of Pakistan’s news and policy debates following the federal government’s decision to import one million tonnes through the Trading Corporation of Pakistan in response to the provinces’ reported requirement of 2.2m tonnes.
The decision is surprising. Until only a few weeks ago, the government consistently maintained that this year’s harvest of 29.8m tonnes — up 4.8pc from last year’s 28.4m tonnes — combined with over 2m tonnes of carryover stocks, would be sufficient to meet the country’s annual demand.
This abrupt policy reversal raises a fundamental question: does Pakistan possess the capacity for precise, data-driven crop modelling based on annually updated variables, or do national staple crop policies still rely on imperfect data, ad hoc assessments, and a simple incremental approach to planning? Crucially, who benefits from these persistent institutional weaknesses — and at what cost to vulnerable farmers and consumers?
When it comes to wheat production estimates, the government claims to draw data from multiple sources, including provincial Crop Reporting Services (CRS), Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco), Land Information and Management System (Lims), and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). However, official figures rely primarily on CRS, which uses conventional area-frame sampling (in Punjab). This sample-based technique depends heavily on the skills, diligence and, above all, the integrity of field enumerators.
