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Pakistan is set to import one million tonnes of wheat as the federal government finds strategic reserves insufficient to meet the provinces’ requirements. More surprisingly, Punjab — the country’s only wheat-surplus province — has also sought 1m tonnes.
Wheat imports are not unusual for Pakistan. The country has imported wheat in several financial years over the past decade to bridge supply gaps or rebuild strategic reserves. What makes the current decision unprecedented, however, is its timing. It comes barely three months after harvest, despite repeated official claims, made until only a few weeks ago, that 29.8m tonnes of domestic production, along with over 2m tonnes of carryover stocks, would be sufficient to meet the country’s annual requirements.
Adding to the puzzle, poultry feed mills are not consuming wheat this year because maize — the poultry sector’s preferred feed grain — is considerably cheaper. Moreover, the border with Afghanistan has remained closed to both formal exports and cross-border smuggling.
Yet wheat prices have surged from around Rs3,300 to Rs4,700 per 40 kg since harvest — well above the import parity price. It reflects a significant supply-demand imbalance. All these developments raise serious questions about the credibility of official wheat production estimates, adequacy of strategic reserves, and the overall management of Pakistan’s wheat supply chain.
